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Rig sequence
Management

Problem

Business Problem

An operator has the complex task to plan and manage an active drilling program with 5 rigs and a portfolio of hundreds of different exploration and development projects.

The projects all vary in front-end maturity, duration, value, location and hydrocarbon type.

Oil delivers most economic value per barrel, but meeting the existing gas contract is important for the company's reputation.

Goal

Use Game AI approach to create optimized sequences for different value drivers, and test robustness against uncertainties.

Scale The number of permutations to sequence a portfolio of drilling projects on multiple rigs is enormous. For just 100 projects the number of permutations already far exceeds the number of atoms in the universe. Business Drivers Different opinions and business drivers often lead to tension: exploration vs. development, asset 1 vs. asset 2, gas vs. oil, cost vs. value. Being able to translate these diffferent drivers into alternative plans helps to make quality decisions. Uncertainties Schedules, cost estimates and project outcomes all have ranges of uncertainty. Testing the robustness of the sequence against these ranges is important to have high confidence in the ultimate plan. Constraints Building an optimized rig sequence requires a good understanding of many constraints. Examples are: rig capability, shut down requirements, production ullage, project dependencies, material lead times. the result of existing processes is a suboptimal rig sequence without clear trade- offs between business drivers Result

Rig Sequence
Management

Process

Game AI

We translated the company's rig sequence management into a game, and taught an AI agent to play this game.

Through self-play, the AI learns to master the game mechanics and to develop sequences that outperform human planning capability.

Using our AI as a planning assistant, we can now develop rig sequences much more efficiently than before.

Different business drivers are translated into alternative sequences for better decisions. Robustness against key uncertainties can be verified. And managing change becomes much easier.

Learning
the basics
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Rig Sequence
Management

Dashboard

Drivers & Robustness

Use the settings below to reflect the gas contract as an important driver, or not. And to perform robustness checks on project schedules and exploration outcome. Evaluate how these settings lead to different optimized rig sequences and use this insight to make the "right" decision.

GAS CONTRACT

very
important

SCHEDULE

delayed

EXPLORATION SUCCESS

low

Gas forecast (km3/d)

Oil forecast (m3/d)

Capex forecast (mln USD)

10 yr CAPEX spend(mln USD)

13.180

10 yr EXPEX spend(mln USD)

1.900

10 yr NPV(mln USD)

5272

Timeline

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Game AI