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Field Development Planning

Problem

Business Problem

Field Development Planning (FDP) is a complex and high stake decision game under uncertain conditions.

A wide range of integrated development concepts needs to be evaluated and optimised over the full range of subsurface uncertainty to understand robustness of the decisions.

Existing ways of working are often manual, slow and incomplete. In most FDP studies only a subset of concepts is evaluated against a handful of subsurface realisations.

As a result there is a high probability of a poor quality business decision and significant risk that value is left on the table.

Goal

Use our Game AI approach to consistently evaluate the full option space against the full range of subsurface uncertainty, and understand the trade offs between different value metrics.

The resulting insight can be used to make much more robust decisions that are supported by all stakeholders, or to build a data-driven case to acquire additional information.

ScaleIntegrated development concepts can have many different choices and sub-choices, leading to a (very) large scale decision problem.DependenciesWithin individual concepts there is still flexibility to optimise, for example the number and timing of development wells. For a consistent comparison of concepts it is important to take this into account.Different value metricsDifferent stakeholders have different value metrics, i.e. different opinions about what is most important to them. A good understanding of the trade offs is important to make quality decisions.Subsurface uncertaintyAt the Field Development Planning stage there is often a wide range of subsurface uncertainty.Only a limited number of non-optimised concepts is evaluated against a few subsurface realisations. This can lead to poor business decisions. Current

Field Development Planning

Process

Game AI

We translated the high stake development planning for a fictitious gas field into an optimisation problem, and taught an AI agent to play this game.

Through self-play, the AI learns to master the game mechanics and to develop development strategies that outperform human capability.

Using our AI as an assistant, we can now evaluate field development plans much more efficiently and effectively than before. This leads to more robust decisions that are supported by all relevant stakeholders.

Start

Field Development Planning

Dashboard

Assume
exploration
success

yes

Frontrunner concepts

Concept choices

    Capital efficiency

    (VIR 5%)

    Net present value

    (5%, mln USD)

    Recovery

    (mln barrels of oil equivalent)

    Workflow

    1

    Game play

    The AI has evaluated all options and optimised the drilling schedule for each outcome.

    2

    Frontrunner concepts in dashboard

    All concepts are evaluated & ranked. The dashboard presents the ranges of key decision metrics for the frontrunner concepts.

    3

    Insight in concept choices

    Use the dashboard to understand the individual concept choices and trade offs between the decision metrics.

    4

    Assesment of cocept robustness

    Consider what-if scenario's such as the impact of exploration outcomes to test concept robustness.

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    Game AI